mark_graph - Network

Are the polls biased? Preliminary analysis suggests that there may be some systemic/collective bias with the polls, particularly with...

Are the polls biased? Preliminary analysis suggests that there may be some systemic/collective bias with the polls, particularly with polling on Labor's primary vote share. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2023/10/are-polls-biased.html

I have started collecting the daily odds for the winner of the next Federal election:...

I have started collecting the daily odds for the winner of the next Federal election: https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2023/10/betting-markets.html

#auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

Complete set of polling aggregation charts: https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2023/10/poll-aggregation.html#auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

Complete set of polling aggregation charts: https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2023/10/poll-aggregation.html

#auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

Today I started work on a Bayesian aggregation of the polls for the 2025 Federal election. #auspol #ausecon #ausbiz

Today I started work on a Bayesian aggregation of the polls for the 2025 Federal election. #auspol #ausecon #ausbiz

#auspol

#auspol

#auspol

#auspol

Next headline annual CPI is largely locked in. We can expect8.2% pa if next quarterly growth is 2.5% [ie 10.4% annualised]8.0% pa if next Q...

Next headline annual CPI is largely locked in. We can expect

8.2% pa if next quarterly growth is 2.5% [ie 10.4% annualised]
8.0% pa if next Q is 2.25% [ie 9.3%]
7.7% pa if next Q is 2% [ie 8.2%]
7.4% pa if next Q is 1.75% [ie 7.2%]
7.2% pa if next Q is 1.5% [ie 6.1%]
6.9% pa if next Q is 1.25% [ie 5.1%]
6.7% pa if next Q is 1.0% [ie 4.1%]
6.4% pa if next Q is 0.75% [ie 3.0%]
6.1% pa if next Q is 0.5% [ie 2.0%]
5.9% pa if next Q is 0.25% [ie 1.0%]

#ausecon #auspol

It looks like 6,000 to 7,000 extra deaths per quarter in Q1 to Q3 2022 - probably COVID related. I used the standard python seasonal...

It looks like 6,000 to 7,000 extra deaths per quarter in Q1 to Q3 2022 - probably COVID related. I used the standard python seasonal decomposition, and a seasonal-decomp function I wrote a few years ago. Both yield similar results. #covid #auspol #ausecon

Australia's resident population growth has recovered after COVID #ausecon #auspol

Australia's resident population growth has recovered after COVID #ausecon #auspol

February labour force 2/n: The unemployment rate still has a 3 in front of it (it was a 5 before covid). And the participation rate remains...

February labour force 2/n: The unemployment rate still has a 3 in front of it (it was a 5 before covid). And the participation rate remains close to record highs. The number of hours worked is still trending upwards. #auspol #ausecon

February labour force 1/n: Full-time employment growth is slowing. Part-time employment growth has stalled. The decline in unemployed...

February labour force 1/n: Full-time employment growth is slowing. Part-time employment growth has stalled. The decline in unemployed persons has ceased, and may now be growing very slowly. #auspol #ausecon

Small but growing nervousness in capital markets in respect of a possible recession (as evidenced by an inversion between the 2 and 3 year...

Small but growing nervousness in capital markets in respect of a possible recession (as evidenced by an inversion between the 2 and 3 year Australian Government Bond yields). #auspol #ausecon

#RBA #interestrates #ausecon #auspol #ausbiz

#RBA #interestrates #ausecon #auspol #ausbiz

#Australia started its higher inflation (> 4%) journey much later than other anglosphere nations. Partly explains some of the #RBA delay...

#Australia started its higher inflation (> 4%) journey much later than other anglosphere nations. Partly explains some of the #RBA delay on hiking interest rates compared with other Anglosphere nations. Also note: #NZ has high interest rates and persistent high inflation. #ausbiz #auspol #ausecon

Raised #interestrates are having an impact on new home loans #auspol #ausecon #ausbiz

Raised #interestrates are having an impact on new home loans #auspol #ausecon #ausbiz

Australia's #inflation problem is broad-based (in a way it has not been for 30+ years). #ausbiz #ausecon #auspol

Australia's #inflation problem is broad-based (in a way it has not been for 30+ years). #ausbiz #ausecon #auspol

A good read …https://open.substack.com/pub/pricetheory/p/t-hacking?r=cqere&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post

A good read …

https://open.substack.com/pub/pricetheory/p/t-hacking?r=cqere&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post

Will the monthly #inflation *indicator* stay the hand of the #RBA. Maybe, but they explicitly ignored the zero in October. This series is...

Will the monthly #inflation *indicator* stay the hand of the #RBA. Maybe, but they explicitly ignored the zero in October. This series is noisy, and one good print is not enough to say the job is done. #auspol #ausecon #ausbiz

Thinking about money supply, the problem of the zero lower bound and QE, as one potential driver of the current inflation burst. #ausecon...

Thinking about money supply, the problem of the zero lower bound and QE, as one potential driver of the current inflation burst. #ausecon #ausbiz #auspol

#ABS quarterly business indicators #ausecon #ausbiz

#ABS quarterly business indicators #ausecon #ausbiz