rutgerdankers - Network

The @NOS is picking up on the news about a potential breakdown of the Nort Atlantic Ocean Circulation #AMOCBut just to be clear (as it is...

The @NOS is picking up on the news about a potential breakdown of the Nort Atlantic Ocean Circulation #AMOC

But just to be clear (as it is not specifically mentioned in the article): such a cooling over Northwestern Europe would be *caused* by global warming, leading to excessive melting of the Greenland ice cap, thawing of permafrost and a large influx of freshwater into the Atlantic Ocean.

Nor is this scenario entirely new: already in 2004 there was a major Hollywood movie around this idea ( The Day after Tomorrow).

https://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/collectie/13871/artikel/2564907-nieuw-klimaatscenario-baart-onderzoekers-zorgen-juist-kouder-nederland

Also interesting to note is that this dry spell doesn't seem as remarkable if you use a rainfall threshold of 0.1 mm/day, which KNMI...

Also interesting to note is that this dry spell doesn't seem as remarkable if you use a rainfall threshold of 0.1 mm/day, which KNMI tends to use sometimes. Because there were some days in March with small amounts of rainfall (always less than 1 mm/day), the largest number of consecutive dry days using a 0.1 mm/day threshold so far this year is only 13 days.

The drought, of course, is very real and impacts have been felt in the last few weeks (for example a large number of wildfires). This shows that one single indicator may not always capture the intensity of a weather phenomenon.
#climatechange #climateservices

An update on the drought here in The Netherlands this Spring. Based on preliminary rainfall data, and using a rainfall threshold of 1...

An update on the drought here in The Netherlands this Spring. Based on preliminary rainfall data, and using a rainfall threshold of 1 mm/day, there were 44 consecutive dry days at the main @knmi weather station in De Bilt between end of February and last weekend. This is very close to the record of 45 consecutive dry days, which was reached in 2007 and 2020.

Long dry spells of more than 35 days have occurred only once in the 20th century, in 1972 with 40 days. This century, it has already happened five times: in 2007, 2018, 2020, 2023 and now in 2025. The frequency of these very long dry spells in recent years is truly astonishing.

Years with a CDD index of 35 days or more are: 1972, 2007, 2018, 2020, 2023 and now 2025. You would think there is some trend.......

Years with a CDD index of 35 days or more are: 1972, 2007, 2018, 2020, 2023 and now 2025. You would think there is some trend.... #climatechange

A new climate record is in sight... The last day with significant rainfall in De Bilt, The Netherlands (the main weather station of @knmi)...

A new climate record is in sight... The last day with significant rainfall in De Bilt, The Netherlands (the main weather station of @knmi) was - according to provisional data - the 27th of February. Since then 2.0 mm of rain has fallen, but over several days, and each time less than 1.0 mm/day.

Following the international definition of a "dry day" as having less than 1 mm of rain, the Cumulative Dry Day (CDD) index is currently standing at 37 days. The record is, I believe, 45 days, reached in 2007 and 2020. This week at least little rain is being forecast.

The *increase* in atmospheric CO2 concentration (the growth rate) is still...

The *increase* in atmospheric CO2 concentration (the growth rate) is still *increasing*.

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2025/03/06/smoking-three-packs-a-day/

Are you a user of climate data in the Alpine region? Do you use, or do you want to know more about, the Copernicus Climate Change Service?...

Are you a user of climate data in the Alpine region? Do you use, or do you want to know more about, the Copernicus Climate Change Service? Please join us at the C3S User Engagement workshop with the Alpine user community on 11 March. More information here: https://climate.copernicus.eu/c3s-user-engagement-workshop-alpine-user-community

#climatedata #c3s #alpineregion @CopernicusECMWF

Why is soil temperature not in the list of Essential Climate Variables...

Why is soil temperature not in the list of Essential Climate Variables (https://gcos.wmo.int/site/global-climate-observing-system-gcos/essential-climate-variables)? Does anyone know?

#SoilTemperature

Rise in heat deaths across Europe will substantially outweigh fewer cold deaths. Paper by Pierre Masselot et al. 2025:...

Rise in heat deaths across Europe will substantially outweigh fewer cold deaths.

Paper by Pierre Masselot et al. 2025: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-024-03452-2

News article: https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2025/climate-study-rise-heat-deaths-will-substantially-outweigh-fewer-cold-deaths

Also in the KNMI State of the Climate Report that was released today, something that hasn't got as much attention in the media: it has...

Also in the KNMI State of the Climate Report that was released today, something that hasn't got as much attention in the media: it has also been record hot in the Caribbean. On Curaçao, there was a record number of hot days ( max temperature 32.2 degrees or higher) last year: 233 days, which is almost 2/3rd of the year! Previous record was.... 198 days.

@knmi #staatvanhetklimaat #climatechange #curaçao

https://nos.nl/artikel/2553799-knmi-richt-zich-na-twee-recordwarme-jaren-meer-op-gevoelstemperatuur

It was quite cold at the weather observation site of Wageningen University earlier today.#oops #temperature #weather #wur

It was quite cold at the weather observation site of Wageningen University earlier today.
#oops #temperature #weather #wur

Call for Polish climate service experts: two webinars to discover the #CopernicusClimate Change Service (#C3S) products and services!...

Call for Polish climate service experts: two webinars to discover the #CopernicusClimate Change Service (#C3S) products and services! 🌍

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the European Commission, is hosting two exclusive webinars dedicated to exploring climate data and services, with a particular focus on Polish stakeholders. Copernicus ECMWF.

These sessions are organised in collaboration with the Instytut Ochrony Środowiska-Państwowy Instytut Badawczy (Institute of Environmental Protection – National Research Institute (IOS-PIB)).

🔵 Webinar 1 | Climate data information – Discover the C3S Products and Services
Gain an introduction to the Climate Data Store (CDS), explore how C3S can benefit your work, and connect with the ECMWF and C3S team.
📅 Date: 9 January 2025
⏰ Time: 11:00–12:30 CET
🎯 Target Audience: Potential new C3S users

🔵 Webinar 2 | C3S CDS and the CMS – What's New?
Discover the latest updates to the CDS, explore new features, and share your needs to help shape the future of C3S.
📅 Date: 16 January 2025
⏰ Time: 10:00–12:30 CET
🎯 Target Audience: Current Polish C3S users

Participants will also have the chance to showcase their use cases—indicate your interest during registration!

📌 Register to one or both webinars by 7 January 2025: https://www.forms.ecologic.eu/c3s-poland

@CopernicusECMWF

Brief communication: Stay local or go global? On the construction of plausible counterfactual scenarios to assess flash flood...

Brief communication: Stay local or go global? On the construction of plausible counterfactual scenarios to assess flash flood hazards

https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/24/4609/2024/

#interestingpapertocheckout

A sobering view on the concept of "carbon farming"...

A sobering view on the concept of "carbon farming"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/21/donald-trump-science-climate-cop29-carbon-markets

Regardless, once more it has become clear that we need to adapt to this type of unprecedented - and perhaps difficult to imagine - events....

Regardless, once more it has become clear that we need to adapt to this type of unprecedented - and perhaps difficult to imagine - events. This applies to all aspects of disaster management, from flood risk assessment to flood protection measures to early warning systems and flood management protocols. Simply looking back at historical events is not enough.

(part 5/END)

And then there is the issue that our flood protection measures and early warning systems and response protocols may not be able to deal with...

And then there is the issue that our flood protection measures and early warning systems and response protocols may not be able to deal with this type of unprecedented events. So is our exposure to flooding larger than we thought? Or are we more vulnerable than we thought?

(part 4/5)

If you take flooding as the main hazard (as I think you should), then it is clear that the flood hazard has increased, but in more complex...

If you take flooding as the main hazard (as I think you should), then it is clear that the flood hazard has increased, but in more complex ways than just an increase in the likelihood of extreme rainfall events.

(part 3/5)

... but it looks like there have also been land use changes contributing to the flooding, with traditional small-scale terraces making way...

... but it looks like there have also been land use changes contributing to the flooding, with traditional small-scale terraces making way for larger fields to facilitate modern agriculture equipment. How would you describe this? If you take rainfall as the hazard, then perhaps you would say the vulnerability has increased. But the vulnerability of what, of the landscape?

(part 2/5)

I have been thinking about the #Valencia #FloodDisaster. Clearly, there are many aspects to it, and I do not know all the details - far from...

I have been thinking about the #Valencia #FloodDisaster. Clearly, there are many aspects to it, and I do not know all the details - far from it.

In #DRR we tend to discriminate between hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The amount of rainfall in the area seems unprecedented, in line with higher rainfall intensities in a warming world and record-high sea level temperatures in the Mediterranean. So you would say that the hazard has increased...

(part 1/5)

In The Netherlands, the national record of 38.6ºC from 1944 was broken by a margin of more than 2 degrees (40.7ºC) in 2019.(link to...

In The Netherlands, the national record of 38.6ºC from 1944 was broken by a margin of more than 2 degrees (40.7ºC) in 2019.

(link to article: https://buff.ly/4dBsuKf)